2019 Muskoka ‘Big Lakes’ Cottage Real Estate Market

The following statistics are only for the larger lakes in Muskoka and Seguin Township. These include the following: Lake Joseph, Lake Rosseau, Lake Muskoka, Skeleton Lake, Lake of Bays, Fairy Lake, Lake Vernon, Peninsula Lake and Mary Lake.

Muskoka cottage market continues to be a sound investment. Since 2010 the average price of a cottage on one of the Muskoka big lakes has increased 86.7%. Market remains balanced with equal supply to demand. In 2019 we had an increase in inventory of 4.5%, that’s the first increase since 2015. Despite fewer sales in 2019 the average sale price has gone up 10.7% to $1,844,414. There were four sales in the Muskoka Lakes area in 2019 over $8MM, these were big factors in driving up that average price YOY. Number of days on market is 71 days and the fewest days on market for 2019 were in Q3. The sale to list percentage for 2019 was 95.5% basically unchanged from the previous year.

If you would like more information, don’t hesitate to reach out anytime. Email: info@abenteam.com or call 1-844-843-2236.

Data based on the following:
Muskoka Waterfront Cottages — Lake Rosseau and Lake Joseph Cottages in Seguin Township
Excludes residential, vacant land, condo and commercial properties

What Type Of Market Are We In

Number of Cottages for Sale for 2019 – Up 4.5% YOY

Number of Units Sold for 2019 – Down 5.8% YOY

227 (number sold) ÷ 487 (number listed) = .47 (47%)

47% = Balanced Market

BALANCED MARKET (35%-55%) – The number of homes on the market is equal to the demand or number of buyers.

First time since 2015 that we have an increase in supply from 456 listings in 2018 to 487 in 2019, which represents a 6.8% increase. Despite the increase in inventory unit sales have decreased 4.2% YOY. Declining unit sales since 2017. We are still experiencing a balanced market where there’s adequate supply for the demand.

BUYERS MARKET (< 35%)

The supply of homes on the market exceeds demand.

BALANCED MARKET (35%-55%)

The number of homes on the market is equal to the demand or number of buyers.

SELLERS MARKET (> 55%)

The number of buyer’s wanting homes exceeds the supply or number of homes on the market.

Average and Median Sale Price

Average Sale Price $1,844,414

Up 10.7% YOY (2018 $1,665,409)

Median Sale Price $1,300,000

Up 8.3% YOY (2018 1,200,000)

Since 2010 the average price has increased 86.7%.

Unit Sales – Big Lakes vs Medium/Small Lakes

Comparing Units Sold on Different Sized Lakes

Big Lakes* – Down 4.2%

2018 – 237, 2019 – 227

Medium/Small Lakes** – Down 3.9%

2018 – 384, 2019 – 369

*Big Lakes: Lake Rosseau, Lake Joseph, Lake Muskoka, Lake of Bays, Fairy Lake, Mary Lake, Lake Vernon, Peninsula Lake, Skeleton Lake

**All other lakes

Number of Cottages Sold by Month

4.2% fewer sales in 2019 YOY on the Big Lakes.

When to list

The spring market has been typically the best time to list your property, but I believe going into 2020 you are better to wait till June to list your cottage property. If you wait your property will look so much better with leaves on the trees and some flowers in bloom. Also looking at the average days on market and number of units sold, spring is no long the most active time for cottage sales. It’s also important to discuss a strategy with your realtor because other factors may influence when to list.

Average Sale Price on Lake Rosseau, Lake Joseph and Lake Muskoka

Lake Joseph $3,511,833

Up 20.8% YOY (2018 $2,907,004)

Lake Rosseau $3,000,319

Up 47.2% YOY (2018 $2,038,290)

Lake Muskoka $1,600,215

Down 1.5% YOY (2018 $1,625,081)

Unit Sales on Lake Rosseau, Lake Joseph and Lake Muskoka

Lake Joseph Down 20%

Lake Rosseau Up 22.6%

Lake Muskoka Down 11.2%

Average Sale Price on Lake of Bays, Huntsville Lakes Combined (Fairy Lake, Lake Vernon, Peninsula Lake, Mary Lake) and Skeleton Lake

Lake of Bays $1,154,472

Down 2% YOY (2018 $1,178,700)

Huntsville Lakes $1,019,307

Down 8.5% YOY (2018 $1,114,500)

Skeleton Lake $1,042,667*

Up 14.7% YOY (2018 $909,000)

*Average price based only on 3 sales. Not enough data to make this number meaningful.

Unit Sales on Lake of Bays, Huntsville Lakes Combined (Fairy Lake, Lake Vernon, Peninsula Lake, Mary Lake) and Skeleton Lake

Lake of Bays Down 3.5%

2018 – 57, 2019 – 55

Huntsville Lakes* Up 17.2%

2018 – 29, 2019 – 34

Skeleton Lake Down 40%**

2018 – 5, 2019 – 3

* Huntsville Lakes includes, Fairy Lake, Lake Vernon, Peninsula Lake and Mary Lake.

**Only 3 sales on Skeleton Lake for 2019. Not enough data to make the number meaningful. 

Number of Cottages Sold by Price Range

The chart here is represents only the big lakes.

8.7% fewer sales under $1,000,000 in 2019 YOY. It’s getting harder and harder to find a cottage under $1MM on the big lakes. 

72.7% more sales over $4,000,000 in 2019 YOY

$8,000,000+ Sales in 2019

$8,300,000 Lake Joseph

$9,300,000 Lake Rosseau

$10,283,000 Lake Rosseau

$13,900,000 Lake Joseph

Average Days on Market

Days on Market  71

Average days on market is 5 days fewer year over year.

Q2 has the fewest days on market at 60 days.

Sold Price to List / Original Price

List Price to Sale Price ratio – Up .2%

Increased from 95.3% in 2018 to 95.5% in 2019

Original List Price to Sale Price – Up 1%

Increased from 93.4% in 2018 to 94.4% in 2019

Data Source: The Lakelands Association of Realtors