2020 Muskoka ‘Big Three’ Cottage Real Estate Market

The following statistics are only for Lake Joseph, Lake Rosseau, Lake Muskoka. (Freehold, Waterfront: Yes, Region: Muskoka, Parry Sound)

The Muskoka cottage market continues to be a stellar investment. The status of the market is heavily leaning toward the seller advantage (73%) with low supply and very high demand. Since 2019 we had a decrease in inventory of 28%. With more sales than in 2019, these two factors contribute greatly to send the market deep into sellers market territory this year. There were four sales in the Muskoka Lakes area in 2019 over $8MM,  and so far in 2020  there have been 4 $8+MM sales, year to date(October 10th), these are big factors in driving up average sale price YOY. The average number of days to sell is down from 2019’s 64 days to 52 days to sell.  Quality, well priced, well staged and well advertised listings are generating a lot of interest and selling far quicker than the average days to sell suggests, multiple offer situations have become more and more common as the market unfolds in the year 2020. For a deep analysis of the ‘Big 3’ Lakes see below for in depth data and graphs.

If you would like more information, reach out anytime.

Call, Email or Text

John Aben, Broker — john@abenteam.com or 705-788-4770.
Mark Aben, Broker — mark@abenteam.com or 705-788-4388

Data based on the following;
Freehold, Waterfront: “Yes” Waterbody name is like ‘Rosseau*’, ‘Joseph*’, ‘Muskoka*’ EXCLUDES: Muskoka River properties.

What Type Of Market Are We In

Number of Cottages for Sale for 2020 – Down 27.5% YOY

Number of Units Sold for 2020 – Up 6.9% YOY

172 (number sold) ÷ 241 (number listed) = .71 (71%)

71% = Sellers Market

SELLERS MARKET (> 55%)
The number of buyer’s wanting homes exceeds the supply or number of homes on the market.

The trend of falling inventory levels since 2015 continues this year with a cut YTD of 28% fewer listings this year than last year (October 2020). Despite the decrease of inventory unit sales have increased  5.5% YOY. Increasing unit sales and decreasing supply rushes the market deeper into sellers market territory with every sale. We are still experiencing a significant sellers market where there’s severely limited supply for the demand that is carrying into the fall months and start of Q4.

BUYERS MARKET (< 35%)
The supply of homes on the market exceeds demand.
BALANCED MARKET (35%-55%)
The number of homes on the market is equal to the demand or number of buyers.
SELLERS MARKET (> 55%)
The number of buyer’s wanting homes exceeds the supply or number of homes on the market.

Average and Median Sale Price By Lake

Lake Joseph

Average Sale Price:  $3,793,251

Up 13.3% YOY (2019: $3,347,862)

Median Sale Price: $3,450,000

Up 53.8% YOY (2019: $2,250,000)

Lake Rosseau

Average Sale Price: $3,584,675

Up 21.1% YOY (2019: $2,950,741)

Median Sale Price: $2,785,000

Up 8.4% YOY (2019: $2,568,280)

Lake Muskoka

Average Sale Price: $2,113,431

Up 35.8% YOY (2019: $1,556,101)

Median Sale Price: $1,655,500

Up 36.6% YOY (2019: $1,212,500)

This year of 2020 has been huge for the ‘Big Three’ lakes in Southern Muskoka. Lake Muskoka topping the list for sale price increases realizing an average of 35.8% higher values compared to December 31st 2019 numbers. Lake Rosseau and Lake Joseph values continue to steadily increase also seeing a 21.1% and a 13.1% increase respectively. Lake Joseph property owners will be happy to hear that the median sale price has shot up 53.8%. Average sale price can be skewed by a few high value sales. The increase of over 50% to the median sale price indicates that more properties are now selling at a higher price bringing more owners on board to the appreciation gains on Lake Joseph.

Unit Sales Year to Date – Monthly, By Lake

Comparing Units Sold on the Big Three by Month

Lake Joseph

2020 –  39 Sales (YTD Nov 17th)

2019 – 30 Sales

Up 30% (YTD Nov 17th)

Lake Rosseau

2020 –  55 Sales (YTD Nov 17th)

2019 – 40 Sales

UP 37%

Lake Muskoka

2020 –  126 Sales (YTD Nov 17th)

2019 – 94 Sales

Up 34% (YTD Nov 17th)

This graph does a good job visualizing just how many more sales occur on Lake Muskoka versus Lake Joseph and Rosseau month to month. Since the price point on Lake Muskoka is more achievable for a wider scope of potential buyers and that there is more property on the larger lake. Those factors contribute greatly to the amount of units sold in South Muskoka

Waterfront:: Yes, Freehold, Waterbody name is like ‘Lake Rosseau’, ‘Lake Joseph’, ‘Lake Muskoka’

Average Sale Price on Lake Rosseau, Lake Joseph and Lake Muskoka

Lake Joseph 2020: $3,793,251

Up 13.1% YOY (2019 $3,347,862)

Lake Rosseau 2020 $3,584,675

Up 21.1% YOY (2019 $2,950,741)

Lake Muskoka 2020 $2,113,431

Up 35.8% YOY (2019 $1,556,101)

Graphing the average sale price of the ‘Big Three’ lakes over a 10 year span all on the same graph shows the trends that have been happening over time well. You can visualize how the increased supply on Lake Muskoka has kept values trending below those on Lake Joseph with Lake Rosseau. Since 2018 however, there has been large spikes in Lake Rosseau properties values.  Perhaps from eager real estate investors that identified and acquired under valued property. The demand was created and it far outweighed the supply, which would create a spike as seen in the graphs.

Unit Sales on Lake Rosseau, Lake Joseph and Lake Muskoka

Lake Joseph Up 19.6%

2019 : 30 Sales

2020: 39 Sales

Lake Rosseau  Down 2.6%

2019: 40 Sales

2020: 55 Sales

Lake Muskoka Up 4.3%

2019: 94 Sales

2020: 126 Sales

(YTD Nov 17th 2020)

Number of Cottages Sold by Price Range

The chart here is represents only the ‘Big Three’.

12.8% fewer sales under $2,000,000 in 2020 YOY. It’s getting harder and harder to find a cottage under $2MM on the Big Three lakes. 

56% more sales over $3,000,000 in 2020 YOY

$8,000,000+ Sales in 2020 YTD

$11,300,000 Lake Joseph

$11,400,000 Lake Rosseau

$16,200,000 Lake Rosseau

$11,950,000 Lake Joseph

Average Days to Sell

Days to Sell:  52

Average days to Sell is 12 days fewer year over year down from 64

In this market the Days to Sell statistic is useful to an extent as it analyzes every listing and the total days to sell and gives the average.

What this statistic doesn’t exemplify is the fact the that neatly staged and well priced listings that have professional photography taken are being listed with offer withholding dates and selling under multiple offers quickly and consistently.

To have your home Staged, Listed and Sold, contact the Aben Team.

Sold Price to List / Original Price

List Price to Sale Price ratio – Up .84%

Increased from 95.1% in 2019 to 95.9% in 2020

Original List Price to Sale Price – Up 0.8%

Increased from 94% in 2019 to 94.8% in 2020

If you would like more information, reach out anytime.

Call, Email or Text

John Aben, Broker — john@abenteam.com or 705-788-4770.
Mark Aben, Broker — mark@abenteam.com or 705-788-4388

Data Source: The Lakelands Association of Realtors
Critera; Freehold, Waterfront: “Yes” Waterbody name is like ‘Rosseau*’, ‘Joseph*’, ‘Muskoka*’ EXCLUDES: Muskoka River properties.