2020 Muskoka Cottage Real Estate Market

Thank you for checking out the year in review on the Muskoka cottage market! It was a record breaking year in Muskoka real estate. Investments in Muskoka cottages have proven to have had one of the best years in history. Since the beginning of 2020 the market has shifted and changed drastically from the impacts of the year’s events. The market is strongly tilted toward the sellers advantage with low supply to record high demand. In 2019 we had an increase in cottages on the market, that’s the first increase since 2015. This year in 2020 with the effects from the pandemic, supply has dropped 10.4% while unit sales on the waterfront in Muskoka year over year has gone up 44.3%! The unit sales statistic this year being so significant has greatly affected values. The average sale price is up on waterfront cottages 24.3% since January 1st 2020,  now over $1.3MM!  Average days to sell dropped 17 days this year from 68 days to 51 days.

To have your existing Muskoka waterfront cottage professionally staged, photographed, listed and SOLD please feel free to contact the Aben Team.

Would you want to miss out on this unprecedented time to sell Muskoka Real Estate?

For a free property evaluation find out How We Do It !

If considering selling or buying Muskoka Real Estate, reach out anytime.

John Aben, Broker — john@abenteam.com or call 705-788-4770.
Mark Aben, Broker — mark@abenteam.com or call 705-788-4388.
Email: info@abenteam.com

Data based on the following:
Muskoka Waterfront Cottages
Excludes residential, vacant land, condo and commercial properties
*Data excludes lakes in the District of Parry Sound, meaning data does not reflect sales on the upper north & north west ends of Lake Joseph & Lake Rosseau

What Type Of Market Are We In

Number of Cottages for Sale for 2020 – Down 10.4% YOY

Number of Units Sold for 2020 – UP 44.3% YOY

912 (number sold) ÷ 1088 (number listed) = .84 (84%)

84% = Sellers Market

SELLERS MARKET (> 55%) – The number of buyers wanting homes exceeds the supply or number of homes on the market.

This statistic means that of the cottages listed, 84% of the waterfront listings have sold to end 2020 with the highest sellers advantage in the market for over 10 years. In the past we have seen ups and downs but overall supply is trending downward and demand, or units sold, has been steadily trending upward, this trend is present in residential as well but this trend is more strongly shown on the waterfront. With supply decreasing and units sold increasing this kick started the market to tilt further toward the seller advantage as less cottages for sale and more buyers in the market for a cottage affects values as basic supply and demand laws dictate.

BUYERS MARKET (< 35%)
The supply of homes on the market exceeds demand.
BALANCED MARKET (35%-55%)
The number of homes on the market is equal to the demand or number of buyers.
SELLERS MARKET (> 55%)
The number of buyer’s wanting homes exceeds the supply or number of homes on the market.

Average and Median Sale Price

Average Sale Price – $1,345,526

Median Sale Price – $851,000

Percentage Increase in Average Sale Price

$1,089,461(2019) to $1,345,526 (2020) = Up 24.3%

Percentage Increase in Median Sale Price

$702,500 (2019) to $851,000 (2020) = Up 21.1%

Sold to listed ratio greatly impacts the valuation and average sale price on waterfront properties as seen in the graph. Taking into account all water bodies in Muskoka, small and large, the market statistics show a 24.3% upward trend in average sale price when comparing January 1st 2020 to January 1st 2021. The demand for waterfront cottages have never been higher.

Unit Sales – Big Lakes vs Medium/Small Lakes

Comparing Units Sold on Different Sized Lakes

Big Lakes* – UP 42.6%

2019 – 305, 2020 – 435

Medium/Small Lakes** – UP 45.8%

2019 – 327, 2020 – 477

The lack in supply of waterfront Muskoka cottages for sale has shifted demand and attention outwards for both small and big lakes in Muskoka.

*Big Lakes: Lake Rosseau, Lake Joseph, Lake Muskoka, Lake of Bays, Fairy Lake, Mary Lake, Lake Vernon, Peninsula Lake, Skeleton Lake
**All other lakes
*Data excludes lakes in the District of Parry Sound, meaning data does not reflect sales on the upper north & north west ends of Lake Joseph & Lake Rosseau

Number of Cottages Sold by Month

Number of Cottages Sold – Up 44.3%

Slower start in 2020 due to the impacts of the pandemic, in the first quarter. As May came around with some pent up demand and the movement to find a place away from the city, kick started the upward trend.

When to list

In the current market, the demand is higher than ever! If you are in a position to sell, listing your cottage now while supply is low and demand is high is always a good strategy. Towards the spring and summer of 2021 supply could increase and the market could shift.

Number of Cottages Sold by Price Range

2019 – 53% of sales under $750,000

2020 – 41% of sales under $750,000

This shows that there are fewer cottages selling in 2020 than in 2019 under $750,000.

Average Days on Market

Days on Market  51

Average days on market is 17 days shorter year over year.

Q4 has the fewest days on market at 43 days. This statistic shows that demand is remaining steady if not increasing as we move through Q4.

Sold Price to List / Original Price

List Price to Sale Price ratio – Up 1.5%

Increased from 96.3% in 2019 to 97.8% in 2020

Original List Price to Sale Price – Up 1.9%

Increased from 95.4% in 2019 to 97.3% in 2020

This statistic provides good evidence of increased value to cottage owners. In this market well listed and priced properties are generating significant interest and selling over asking price under multiple offers has become quite common.

Data Source: The Lakelands Association of Realtors