2021 Muskoka ‘Big Lakes’ Cottage Real Estate Market

*This analysis looks at data from January 1st 2021 to December 31st 2021 percentages are reflected over this time span

Thank you for checking out the year in review for the Muskoka ‘Big Lakes’  Cottage real estate market! It was another record-breaking year in the real estate market. The Muskoka cottage market continues to be a stellar investment. Since the beginning of 2019, the market has shifted and changed drastically from the impacts of the year’s events.

The market began optimistically in 2021, even though the effects of COVID-19 had yet to wear off. The shift of a balanced market in 2019 to one of the strongest sellers’ markets in history in 2020, has continued into 2021, especially since the majority of the year we saw low inventory. With unit sales on the ‘Big Lakes’ down 27.4% in 2021 the average sale price has gone up 25.1% , from $2,254,157 (2020) to $2,819,153.5 (2021).

The sale price to list price ratio for 2020 unit sold was down 27.4%  with the type of market showing signs of a sellers’ market at 67%. These are record-breaking numbers for the Muskoka cottage market. Incredible to see this happening in the area, great news for owners and investors in the area.

We hope this information is useful to you.

Would you want to miss out on this unprecedented time to sell Muskoka Real Estate?

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If considering selling or buying Muskoka Real Estate, reach out anytime.

John Aben, Broker — john@abenteam.com or call 705-788-4770.
Mark Aben, Broker — mark@abenteam.com or call 705-788-4388.
Email: info@abenteam.com

Data based on the following:
Muskoka Waterfront Cottages — Lake Rosseau and Lake Joseph Cottages in Seguin Township
Excludes residential, vacant land, condo and commercial properties
The following statistics are only for the larger lakes in Muskoka and Seguin Township. These include the following: Lake Joseph, Lake Rosseau, Lake Muskoka, Skeleton Lake, Lake of Bays, Fairy Lake, Lake Vernon, Peninsula Lake and Mary Lake. 

2021 Muskoka ‘Big Lakes’ Cottage Real Estate Market | What Type Of Market Are We In

Number of Cottages for Sale for 2021 – Down 20% YOY

Number of Units Sold for 2021 – Down 27.4% YOY

260 (number sold) ÷ 384 (number listed) = .67 (67%)
67% = Sellers Market

SELLERS MARKET (> 55%) The number of buyers wanting homes exceeds the supply or number of homes on the market.

The record-breaking sellers’ market that started in 2020, continues into 2021. There was a decrease in listings of 20% year over year, and unit sales have also seen a decrease of 27.4% since the beginning of 2021 due to low inventory and prices being unaffordable for some buyers. We are experiencing a very strong sellers’ market where there is inadequate supply for the demand.

To have your home professionally staged, photographed, listed, and SOLD contact the Aben Team for professional service. 

BUYERS MARKET (< 35%)
The supply of homes on the market exceeds demand.
BALANCED MARKET (35%-55%)
The number of homes on the market is equal to the demand or number of buyers.
SELLERS MARKET (> 55%)
The number of buyers wanting homes exceeds the supply or number of homes on the market.

2021 Muskoka ‘Big Lakes’ Cottage Real Estate Market | Average and Median Sale Price

Average Sale Price – $2,819,153.5
Up 25.1% YOY (2020 $2,254,157)

Median Sale Price – $1,993,752
Up 16.5% YOY (2020 $1,711,500)

The average sale price across the Big Lakes is up 25.1% since the start of 2021. We have seen a sharp increase in the number of buyers looking to purchase in the area and the data on new listings indicate owners are holding onto their piece of Muskoka real estate longer, due to the drop in new listings over the past years.

2021 Muskoka ‘Big Lakes’ Cottage Real Estate Market | Number of Cottages Sold by Month

27.4% fewer sales in 2021 YOY on the Big Lakes.

When to list
The spring market has been typically the best time to list your property, but I believe going into 2022 if you are in a position to sell an existing Muskoka waterfront property reaching out and developing a strategy is the best approach. In this market, it looks like now the demand has never been higher, and listing now could net the seller more while supply is still low as we begin the new year. As more listings begin to appear in the spring the demand could begin to ease. There’s also the threat of rising interest rates, which may further increase the demand to purchase before this happens.

2021 Muskoka ‘Big Lakes’ Cottage Real Estate Market | Average Sale Price on Lake Rosseau, Lake Joseph and Lake Muskoka

Lake Joseph $4,202,952
Up 1.4% (2020 $4,145,702)

Lake Rosseau $4,531,029
Up 27.4% (2020 $3,557,202)

Lake Muskoka $2,786,520
Up 32.5% (2020 $2,102,518)

2021 witnessed some big sales, seven in total over $10,000,000. The highest sale recorded was $19,000,000 on Lake Rosseau. Lake Rosseau had four sales in excess of $10,000,000 in 2021, Lake Joseph had one sale over $10,000,000, which explains the increase of 27.4% for Lake Rosseau, opposed to only 1.4% on Lake Joseph. Lake Muskoka recorded three sales over $10,000,000 and highest recorded sale of $16,850,000.

In 2020 the three big lakes had five sales in excess of $10,000,000 and in 2019, only two sales.

2021 Muskoka ‘Big Lakes’ Cottage Real Estate Market | Unit Sales on Lake Rosseau, Lake Joseph and Lake Muskoka

Lake Joseph – 2021 units sold Down 31%
2020 – 45 sales   2021 –  31 sales

Lake Rosseau – 2021 units sold Down 38.2%
2020 – 55 sales   2020 – 34 sales

Lake Muskoka – 2021 units sold Down 13.1%
2020 – 138 sales   2021 – 120 sales

The big three lakes all had fewer sales recorded for 2021 vs. 2020. The demand remained high but with 20% fewer cottages on the market for 2021, the strong seller’s market continues. These three lakes are very much in a class and market of their own.

Though inventory is low, these lakes are extremely active and sought after.

2021 Muskoka ‘Big Lakes’ Cottage Real Estate Market | Average Sale Price on Lake of Bays, Huntsville Lakes Combined (Fairy Lake, Lake Vernon, Peninsula Lake, Mary Lake) and Skeleton Lake

Lake of Bays – $2,046,801
Up 23.3% YOY (2020 $1,660,260)

Huntsville Lakes – $1,801,616
Up 22% YOY (2020 $1,476,911)

Skeleton Lake – $1,529,222*
Up 16.2% YOY (2020 $1,316,294)

Rising average sale price in 2021 for Huntsville lakes, Lake of Bays, and Skeleton Lake.  The decrease in inventory has proven a big factor in sending average sale prices up through the pandemic in 2021.

*Average price based only on 9 sales. Not enough data to make this number meaningful.

2021 Muskoka ‘Big Lakes’ Cottage Real Estate Market | Unit Sales on Lake of Bays, Huntsville Lakes Combined (Fairy Lake, Lake Vernon, Peninsula Lake, Mary Lake) and Skeleton Lake

Lake of Bays Down – Down 29.4%
2020 – 68, 2020 – 48

Huntsville Lakes* – Down 48.9%
2020 – 41, 2021 – 21

Skeleton Lake – Down 18.2%
2020 – 11, 2021 – 9

Similarly to Lake Rosseau, Lake Joseph, and Lake Muskoka, the North Muskoka Lakes; Lake of Bays down 29.4%, Huntsville Lakes down 48.9%, and Skeleton Lake down 18.2%. Lack of inventory has attributed mostly to fewer sales. We have many clients looking that haven’t been able to find what they are looking for, demand is still high as you will see later that average price continues to rise.

* Huntsville Lakes includes, Fairy Lake, Lake Vernon, Peninsula Lake and Mary Lake.
**Only 9 sales on Skeleton Lake for 2021. Not enough data to make the number meaningful.

2021 Muskoka ‘Big Lakes’ Cottage Real Estate Market | Number of Cottages Sold by Price Range

The chart here represents only the Big lakes*.

In 2021 there were 38.4% fewer sales on the big lakes in Muskoka under $2,000,000 and 4.4% more sales over $4,000,000. Sales over $8,000,000, there was an increase of $167% year over year.

*The following statistics are only for the larger lakes in Muskoka and Seguin Township. These include the following: Lake Joseph, Lake Rosseau, Lake Muskoka, Skeleton Lake, Lake of Bays, Fairy Lake, Lake Vernon, Peninsula Lake and Mary Lake. 

Data Source: The Lakelands Association of Realtors