2022 Muskoka Real Estate Market Year in Review

Thank you for reviewing the 2022 Muskoka real estate market year! It was a record-breaking year in the Muskoka real estate market, with the average sale price peaking in early 2022, but since then, the number of properties sold has dropped significantly. It’s undoubtedly a quieter market as many buyers sit in the wings waiting for the perfect time to purchase, but I wouldn’t wait too long, as historically if you buy and hold, you will do just fine.

The total sales volume for 2022 was $1,312,727,783 compared to $1,938,806,250 in 2021, representing a decline of approximately 32% YOY. In 2022, 1,120 homes and cottages were sold compared to 1,785 in 2021, a drop of 37%.

The peak in average and median sale price for Muskoka real estate was just after the first quarter of 2022, with an average sale price of $1,381,805 for both residential & cottage combined. Looking at the entire year, the 2022 Muskoka real estate market average sale price is up 7.9% YOY, but MOM for 2022 has declined 40% from the peak in April to the end of December.

Today’s values more closely resemble the market in late 2020, as shown in the red horizontal lines below. The Muskoka real estate market historically has been a sound investment, and the trendlines below further demonstrate this.

Below we’ll look separately at residential and cottage markets.

2022 Muskoka Residential Real Estate Market

MUSKOKA RESIDENTIAL MARKET – Average and Median Sale Price

The Muskoka residential market seems to have flattened out with no substantial increase or decrease in the past five months, approximately 20% down from the highs earlier this year.

Average Sale Price – December 2022 – $702,574
Up 12.2% month over month
Dn 12.5% compared to December 2021

Median Sale Price – December 2022 – $625,000
Dn .2% month over month
Dn 13.2% compared to December 2021

Today’s values more closely resemble the market in early 2021, as shown in the red horizontal lines below. The Muskoka real estate market historically has been a sound investment, and the trendlines below further demonstrate this.

MUSKOKA RESIDENTIAL MARKET – Days on Market (DOM)

The average number of days to sell a home in Muskoka in December 2022 was 38, that’s four days faster than the previous month. In December 2021, selling a home in Muskoka took an average of 21 days.

Year over year a Muskoka home took four days longer to sell in 2022 compared to 2021.

MUSKOKA RESIDENTIAL MARKET – Sale to List Price Ratio

The percentage difference between selling and listing prices was 96.8% for December 2022. That’s 3.2% higher than the previous month.

Looking at year over year, the average sale price to listing price was 100%, which speaks to how hot the market was earlier this year.

MUSKOKA RESIDENTIAL MARKET – Unit Sales by Price Range

The chart below shows how the market has changed according to price range. In 2018 there were a total of 616 Muskoka homes sold under the price of $500,000, in 2022 that number was only 105. That represents 82% fewer homes under $500,000 for sale today over 2018.

In 2018 there were two sales of over $1,000,000; in 2022, that number has grown to 106. The 106 sales in 2022 over $1,000,000 is a 5% increase over 2021 at 101 sales.

2022 Muskoka Cottage Real Estate Market

2022 MUSKOKA WATERFRONT MARKET – Average and Median Sale Price

Market has stabilized somewhat over the past three months, down 38.9% from the peak in April 2022. Muskoka cottages are mainly a luxury, not a necessity, and therefore more receptive to fluctuations than the Muskoka home market.

Average Sale Price – December 2022 – $1,498,000
Up 7.9% month over month
Dn 12.9% compared to December 2021

Median Sale Price – December 2022 – $970,000
Dn 16.6% month over month
Dn 29.8% compared to December 2021

Today’s values more closely resemble the market in late 2020, as shown in the red horizontal lines below. The Muskoka real estate market historically has been a sound investment, and the trendlines below further demonstrate this.

MUSKOKA WATERFRONT MARKET – Days on Market (DOM)

The average days to sell a cottage in Muskoka for December 2022 was 33, a decrease of 36 days from the previous month. This results in most properties now being expired and new listings being appropriately priced and selling more quickly. There is no lack of buyers; they wait for the correct pricing to appear. Year over year, it took five more days to sell a cottage in Muskoka for 2022 compared to 2021.

MUSKOKA WATERFRONT MARKET – Sale to List Price Ratio

The percentage difference between selling and listing prices is now 92.4% for December. The sale price to the listing price difference for 2022 was 96.7%, that’s 4.4% lower compared to 2021.

The days of competing offers are far more seldom, and buyers now can mostly have conditions such as inspections and finance. However, there are lakes that, if the property checks the boxes for exposure, size of frontage, and slope of the land, you will get multiple offers if priced well. There’s still a high demand for such properties, and buyers are now more selective.

MUSKOKA WATERFRONT MARKET – Unit Sales by Price Range

Finding a cottage under $500,000 in Muskoka is increasingly tricky, with only 39 sales in 2021 and 19 in 2022. These properties will be mostly riverfront or island (water access) properties.

Most cottage unit sales now occur between $1,000,000 – $2,000,000.

Sales over $8,000,000 are occurring more often, with 20 sales in the past couple of years. These Muskoka real estate properties will be mainly on the big three lakes; Lake Muskoka, Lake Rosseau, and Lake Joseph.

If you want to see different statistics, or numbers more relatable to your situation, send me a message.

We’ll do our best to keep you informed, but don’t hesitate to reach out with any questions.
John Aben 705-788-4770, or john@abenteam.com
Mark Aben 705-788-4388, or mark@abenteam.com